“May old acquaintance be forgot” as we enter a new decade and era for the radio medium. Time and technology with the advent of the internet has made every industry re-invent itself. So I decided to look in the crystal ball to predict what is on the horizon for the next decade. After reading this article I suggest you revisit your strategy for the New Year. Ask yourself; is what I’m doing now going to grow my business, my audience and my advertiser base in the next ten years? What makes me better than the competition and who really is my competition now? How do I extend my reach both physically and economically?
These are but a few questions and comments to challenge your thinking on the current broadcast business model. Unless you are willing to think out of the box and implement some new innovations this blog will simply be another one of those entertaining beginning of the year features that will find you resting on your good intentions!
Having said that lets begin:
Prediction number 1 – Radio will have to go global in order to survive. Its reach must attract a sizeable global audience in order to get advertising dollars. Market share according to Arbitron radio listening in every major market has shrunk drastically in the past two decades. So the medium will have to find new audiences in order to demand sufficient international ad rates. Thus where will the new audience come from? Answer: a multi-tiered technological marketing effort which includes online, telecommunication and terrestrial broadcasting models for the world. How is your online presence viewed? What phone texting ideas have you incorporated into your station’s marketing plan and does it include a social network component? This isn’t the only industry that understands there is already a new world order. American Airlines has set up its “one world alliance” in order to survive. The movie industry has begun giving world box office figures since they are not making movies for just the American public anymore. And to really bring home this argument, the most aggressive and so far innovative broadcaster to date doesn’t live here, it is Australian Rupert Murdoch.
Prediction number 2 – AM radio as we know it will die. FM will become the dominant home for news formats. But not in its current 70’s news weather and sports form, the 18 to 34 audience has always been different. Which explains why earlier attempts of news on FM have failed, they didn’t fully understand how the FM audience uses radio. For instance, the most popular stop today for 18 to 34 year olds news currently on the worldwide web is www.tmz.com and the most trusted newscaster is the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. I know what you’re thinking “that ain’t news”. I’m just the broadcast evangelist bringing you the message, what an audience accepts as news you can use is not for me to judge but to deliver! How will the audience in the next 10 years use your medium? The AM radio obituary has been written, unless they can create a reason for audiences to leave the FM radio band. After all baby boomers are the last dual band generation who can relate to AM radio’s purpose.
Prediction number 3 – Everything you need to do business is in the palm of your hand. The personal computer will just be a mere docking station for your iphone, blackberry and palm pilot. Did you notice that Sirus / XM have already introduced a 120 dollar dock that essentially turns iphones into satellite radios. Ford Motor Company will introduce in 2011 a car that will include internet access on the dashboard. In the words my granddad “a heap see but a few know”.
Prediction number 4 – Music and movies will almost only be available online as a download file. DVD’s and CD’s will end up like 8 track tapes and cassettes, collector items. You can thank Netflicks, ITunes and Red Box for leading the innovative charge on this one.
Predicition number 5 – The most popular format on radio for the next 10 years will be the 90’s Hip hop retro. Much like the Rock and Roll era of the 50’s, the music of the 90’s is the only era in which artists actually captured lighting in a bottle. What I mean is regardless of the cultural background the youth of that time all loved the same music. When Elvis, Chuck Berry, Little Richard and Sam Cooke in essence are Michael Jackson, Tupac, Public Enemy and Queen Latifah which is why hip hop is corporate now. It made TV stars out of Ice Tea and LLCool J Dr. Dre is a pitch man for Dr Pepper and P Diddy Combs aka Sean John is a mainstream fashion mogul. The Vatican has just launched a new website which features songs that reflect their philosophy and Tupac was one of the songs selected. Does the Catholic Church know something you don’t Mr. and Mrs. Broadcaster? Here’s the article from cnn.com; Music from late rapper Tupac Shakur has been included as part of the Vatican's official MySpace Music playlist.
The seat of the Catholic Church released a list of 12 songs onto the social networking Web site's streaming music service this week when the site launched in the United Kingdom.
Among selections from Mozart, Muse and Dame Shirley Bassey is the slain rapper's song "Changes," which was released two years after his shooting death on a greatest hits album in 1998.
"The genres are very different from each other, but all these artists share the aim to reach the heart of good minded people," the Vatican wrote on its official MySpace Music page.
As of Thursday night, "Changes" had been played more than 4.6 million times on the Web site.
Predication number 6 – Skype video conferencing products will be as common as your home phone.
Prediction number 7 – OMG, LOL, UG2BK, DEGT and its other texting short hand abbreviations will introduced as words in Webster’s Dictionary. Texting is a real staple for the 18 to 34 and now older demos yet radio have yet to tap into its mindset. Until those who are the so-called visionaries for this medium figure out how to effectively reach this new tech savvy audience. You will miss becoming the real media game changer or in texting terms WOMBAT (waste of money, brains and time).
In closing, there is no greater sorrow than to recall in misery the time when we were happy. Change your thoughts and you can change your world!
"Since thoughts of thee doth banish grief, when from thee I am gone;will not thy presence yield relief, to this sad Heart of mine:Why doth thy presence me defeat, with excellence divine?Especially when I reflect on Auld lang syne".
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
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